* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 39 41 40 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 39 41 40 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 3 3 3 6 12 18 27 29 29 33 36 31 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -6 -2 -3 0 0 0 3 7 3 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 98 99 97 83 65 155 223 226 228 240 236 241 240 251 257 266 264 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.1 25.6 24.6 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.6 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 148 147 143 136 120 109 106 109 110 109 117 114 114 118 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.7 -56.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 66 65 63 58 56 49 52 51 54 51 43 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 3 -4 -12 -24 -20 -25 -8 -11 0 -15 -22 -36 -52 -64 -61 200 MB DIV 23 21 29 20 31 28 37 32 7 1 10 -1 -17 0 -30 -21 -46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 3 3 3 4 6 10 7 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 2073 2149 2229 2292 2370 2145 1858 1603 1382 1155 912 673 470 329 205 48 38 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.5 129.8 131.1 132.5 135.2 137.8 140.1 142.1 144.2 146.4 148.5 150.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 15 21 23 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 16. 15. 7. 2. -5. -11. -19. -22. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 127.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.3% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##