* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 41 44 48 48 46 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 41 44 48 48 46 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 34 32 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 6 4 8 9 15 19 32 32 37 43 56 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 2 1 2 3 0 1 -9 SHEAR DIR 41 32 36 34 48 65 357 305 290 271 264 249 254 258 254 250 248 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.1 24.6 23.6 22.2 21.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 151 152 150 145 147 144 137 123 108 99 86 84 104 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 51 49 48 51 51 49 45 41 37 32 32 38 35 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 9 11 19 9 12 -20 -16 -9 0 -8 -28 -9 21 42 47 200 MB DIV 11 0 23 11 27 21 9 39 1 8 -8 -27 -34 -6 11 26 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -2 -1 3 3 6 6 6 -9 -12 15 LAND (KM) 686 697 705 716 730 761 800 779 716 700 690 641 591 456 157 44 -463 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.3 18.3 19.5 20.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.4 108.8 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.4 114.6 115.8 116.7 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 9 10 17 21 26 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 22 25 18 14 12 12 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. 31. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -13. -21. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 19. 23. 23. 21. 18. 12. 5. -2. -14. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 107.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.7% 5.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##