* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 29 32 33 31 28 25 23 23 24 25 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 29 32 33 31 28 25 23 23 24 25 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 19 19 20 21 18 22 22 23 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 4 1 6 4 1 -3 0 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 95 89 84 77 64 68 70 80 98 108 104 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.2 27.0 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 147 149 152 145 133 129 133 131 127 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.2 -50.7 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 8 5 5 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 72 75 76 75 76 78 72 69 62 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 42 38 36 46 53 76 77 79 74 54 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 99 113 99 64 69 58 54 43 48 55 36 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -2 -11 -8 -14 -3 -4 0 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 401 347 292 256 223 181 176 265 145 207 357 406 396 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 9 8 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 15 18 24 16 8 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -20. -19. -20. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 107.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##