* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 25 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 25 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 13 8 8 9 6 13 22 26 9 6 7 8 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 2 0 1 0 7 3 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 108 113 111 88 73 96 122 116 86 86 60 304 262 265 190 192 180 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.9 26.1 26.9 26.9 24.6 22.8 21.8 20.9 20.2 20.0 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 132 131 125 119 120 131 133 110 92 82 71 60 57 61 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 65 63 66 66 70 72 75 72 64 61 53 48 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 43 42 26 33 58 89 90 83 79 52 -1 -16 -23 -41 -66 -35 200 MB DIV 56 58 68 63 61 52 37 26 51 56 -2 -13 -7 -4 -7 -13 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -10 8 2 0 4 0 -14 -19 LAND (KM) 1358 1342 1340 1362 1383 1421 1491 1553 1514 1330 1106 953 892 947 942 899 874 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.2 15.8 15.5 16.3 18.3 21.1 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.0 121.1 121.4 121.8 122.5 123.3 123.7 122.9 121.3 120.4 120.9 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 3 4 2 7 9 13 16 17 11 5 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 121.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##