* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 25 26 28 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 25 26 28 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 5 8 12 9 6 6 2 9 11 20 19 15 10 7 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 0 -3 0 0 0 -6 -3 -6 -3 2 0 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 193 189 132 125 132 82 117 131 173 124 129 133 130 98 73 336 322 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.3 24.6 24.6 24.9 25.5 25.4 26.6 27.0 26.5 24.7 23.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 130 126 125 114 107 108 111 117 115 126 129 126 110 101 87 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 70 66 66 65 62 63 61 60 59 61 59 58 56 57 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 46 53 48 32 44 47 38 34 63 92 100 63 30 -15 -45 200 MB DIV 90 64 68 53 67 51 38 50 6 21 4 0 -12 -9 2 0 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 4 0 0 0 -2 8 16 LAND (KM) 1456 1430 1406 1398 1413 1477 1541 1648 1773 1896 2013 2120 2144 2089 1986 1885 1828 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.3 15.4 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.0 122.1 122.2 122.4 123.4 124.5 126.0 127.6 129.1 130.1 130.6 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 6 6 8 8 6 5 3 1 5 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 121.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.52 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##