* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 48 54 68 78 82 81 72 62 56 49 44 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 48 54 68 78 82 81 72 62 56 49 44 37 32 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 60 67 68 64 59 55 50 46 42 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 5 3 5 8 19 16 20 17 12 14 17 21 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 1 6 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 11 14 17 348 8 136 103 86 107 104 92 101 102 110 117 119 119 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 157 156 155 149 148 146 140 134 124 113 108 102 97 95 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 5 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 80 79 80 77 78 75 74 71 69 67 67 62 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 11 13 13 18 20 21 21 18 14 12 9 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 51 48 60 71 92 79 103 98 102 75 72 55 39 33 22 200 MB DIV 96 91 90 81 103 89 132 91 122 100 84 33 51 29 -12 -10 -10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -10 -6 -2 0 0 -6 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 227 231 237 240 232 295 334 329 319 299 284 303 354 278 215 206 234 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 2 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 20 18 17 15 15 15 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 13. 7. 4. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 24. 38. 48. 52. 51. 42. 32. 26. 19. 14. 7. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 100.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 23.7% 19.9% 18.7% 0.0% 20.5% 31.1% 31.6% Logistic: 0.9% 9.9% 7.0% 3.1% 0.8% 21.9% 36.3% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.4% 5.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% Consensus: 2.9% 14.0% 10.9% 7.9% 0.3% 14.5% 22.7% 17.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 9.0% 13.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##