* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 46 51 52 54 57 58 60 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 46 51 52 54 57 58 60 59 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 31 31 31 33 36 39 42 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 11 7 6 1 7 4 3 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 -1 6 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 95 359 328 345 352 245 242 336 116 101 98 64 75 92 175 184 196 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 148 146 144 142 142 144 145 145 145 146 147 146 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 66 63 60 59 53 59 57 59 62 65 66 66 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -44 -45 -50 -55 -38 -20 -7 4 12 7 13 2 16 25 13 20 200 MB DIV 40 34 44 46 63 59 41 3 -24 -18 -33 17 39 42 62 22 22 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 760 752 746 740 734 712 700 675 640 635 666 701 709 720 722 661 650 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.3 107.8 107.9 107.8 107.5 107.3 107.5 108.3 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 2 0 2 2 1 2 5 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 22 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12 13 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 21. 22. 24. 27. 28. 30. 29. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 105.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 22.8% 21.9% 15.2% 0.0% 20.8% 20.6% 12.7% Logistic: 3.1% 20.4% 8.1% 4.6% 1.3% 12.3% 12.0% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 15.7% 10.2% 6.6% 0.4% 11.1% 10.9% 10.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##