* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 46 50 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 46 50 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 33 34 36 36 36 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 6 1 6 5 4 11 6 5 3 5 9 8 3 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 1 0 -1 2 -4 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 -1 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 86 94 115 48 315 341 307 260 281 272 98 191 304 297 313 219 244 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 150 148 145 144 143 144 146 148 148 148 147 146 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 69 66 63 60 58 55 56 57 58 60 65 63 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -34 -43 -50 -48 -46 -44 -27 -20 -2 3 4 10 19 44 38 10 200 MB DIV 7 15 15 32 47 46 59 48 32 -13 0 11 29 36 58 66 11 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -6 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 4 LAND (KM) 770 771 756 756 755 752 726 697 663 623 593 612 660 675 712 733 708 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.6 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.0 105.7 106.3 107.0 108.0 108.4 108.4 108.3 108.1 107.9 107.9 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 5 2 1 2 2 1 3 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 26 22 19 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 104.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 22.7% 21.2% 14.7% 0.0% 19.7% 19.8% 12.6% Logistic: 0.8% 9.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2.7% 5.6% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.2% 8.1% 5.3% 0.1% 7.5% 8.5% 8.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##