* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 37 36 34 31 29 26 25 22 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 37 36 34 31 29 26 25 22 21 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 1 7 8 14 11 11 8 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 -1 0 1 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 64 107 240 242 275 288 284 268 243 245 232 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.6 26.4 25.5 24.1 23.9 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 141 128 120 105 102 86 88 88 89 92 97 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 65 56 51 49 44 41 36 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 16 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 60 53 52 45 32 0 8 -2 13 -9 10 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 84 43 44 33 7 -19 -23 -7 -11 2 -30 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -10 -3 -8 10 2 6 -3 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1070 1028 999 995 978 1076 1234 1393 1579 1741 1891 1961 1756 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 13 12 11 10 11 8 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 118.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.1% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.3% 39.6% 27.1% 15.5% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 22.7% 17.2% 5.2% 0.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##