* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 36 38 37 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 36 38 37 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 9 9 11 13 17 14 20 21 27 30 34 32 30 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 -3 3 -3 2 1 3 2 6 8 10 7 SHEAR DIR 104 84 114 138 159 164 165 156 173 183 185 190 187 191 196 178 175 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.2 26.1 24.2 22.8 22.9 22.2 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 156 158 153 137 126 105 90 90 82 74 70 67 60 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 78 79 73 69 65 63 56 54 49 46 38 34 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 67 59 58 51 66 74 76 65 32 13 10 14 23 33 17 30 200 MB DIV 61 67 83 81 72 94 68 70 41 53 3 2 -2 -8 -3 14 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 -3 1 -4 -1 0 0 0 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 575 578 549 522 493 492 517 565 550 623 703 770 786 783 760 713 646 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.5 17.9 19.1 20.1 20.9 21.9 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.0 104.5 105.0 106.7 108.8 111.0 113.4 115.6 117.7 119.2 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 11 13 13 13 11 10 8 5 4 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 35 31 27 24 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 27. 24. 21. 19. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 13. 12. 8. 1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -33. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 103.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.9% 6.9% 2.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 12.2% 9.7% 0.7% 0.3% 9.6% 7.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##