* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932020 08/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 43 57 66 76 76 75 73 68 64 60 58 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 43 57 66 76 76 75 73 68 64 60 58 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 29 34 39 43 44 44 42 40 37 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 4 7 6 6 6 5 7 8 8 7 10 11 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 31 24 9 357 314 334 283 254 269 164 175 137 158 136 182 201 213 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.5 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.9 24.9 23.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 163 165 164 160 157 149 129 123 115 110 107 110 110 99 90 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 79 78 77 73 70 64 62 60 57 55 56 55 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 14 19 19 22 21 21 21 19 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 10 20 37 51 59 55 47 65 94 120 124 114 105 106 93 200 MB DIV 53 74 79 61 59 88 84 84 66 67 55 33 8 5 -3 -3 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -1 0 -4 2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 463 480 505 527 547 595 594 540 592 663 852 1031 1130 1185 1229 1296 1392 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.6 17.7 18.8 20.0 20.7 20.8 20.4 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.3 106.4 107.4 108.3 109.8 111.3 112.8 114.8 117.0 119.4 121.2 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 7 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 29 27 22 17 16 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 20. 19. 18. 17. 13. 10. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 23. 37. 46. 56. 56. 55. 53. 48. 44. 40. 38. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 18.6% 8.4% 4.2% 1.2% 29.0% 68.8% 37.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 0.4% 6.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 9.7% 23.0% 12.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##