* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 17 21 30 40 47 52 54 54 56 55 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 17 21 30 40 47 52 54 54 56 55 55 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 18 18 17 18 19 20 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 3 5 7 12 14 13 13 14 22 22 20 17 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 2 3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 292 282 272 230 190 162 120 114 114 105 75 75 83 71 67 71 82 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 157 156 155 155 153 151 149 150 149 147 144 138 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 76 73 68 65 64 61 57 55 54 54 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 10 12 14 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -15 -16 -16 -2 -8 -4 -1 7 3 7 4 -1 -9 -10 -16 200 MB DIV 9 14 27 41 46 52 44 9 7 34 30 46 23 21 0 27 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 774 761 752 745 742 777 857 931 1032 1150 1308 1413 1499 1574 1663 1759 1835 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.1 114.4 115.9 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 6 8 7 6 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 40 43 44 49 45 28 17 14 19 23 12 10 8 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 10. 20. 27. 32. 34. 34. 36. 35. 35. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 23.6% 10.1% 5.6% 0.9% 14.9% 1.0% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 8.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.3% 5.0% 0.4% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##