* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 26 34 41 50 58 61 64 67 68 66 68 68 69 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 23 26 34 41 50 58 61 64 67 68 66 68 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 27 28 29 31 34 36 39 42 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 18 21 17 16 14 11 8 7 4 4 3 11 8 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 -6 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 47 45 46 47 48 52 42 26 23 69 9 354 18 34 52 189 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.5 27.7 27.4 26.9 27.4 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 149 150 148 148 151 143 140 134 139 129 128 132 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 81 78 79 79 78 74 69 66 61 60 62 64 63 66 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 15 17 19 20 20 20 23 22 22 23 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 27 25 32 44 39 31 27 59 67 80 80 55 42 35 27 200 MB DIV 67 65 75 87 79 93 51 38 31 13 1 9 -13 7 20 5 14 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 -2 -3 -7 -4 -6 -8 0 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 588 582 588 591 584 651 618 707 862 1102 1360 1567 1705 1760 1702 1570 1420 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.4 17.9 18.9 19.3 19.3 18.7 17.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.2 110.3 112.6 115.3 118.2 121.2 123.9 125.9 126.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 12 8 5 2 5 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 19 19 12 9 14 6 5 3 12 2 2 5 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 37. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 14. 14. 16. 15. 13. 13. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 14. 21. 30. 38. 41. 44. 48. 48. 46. 48. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 104.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##