* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 31 35 38 40 41 40 39 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 31 35 38 40 41 40 39 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 7 8 6 8 10 12 10 13 9 11 16 21 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -4 -5 -2 -7 -5 -3 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 125 132 77 109 123 106 120 98 114 103 128 127 123 77 79 74 90 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 148 149 148 146 148 145 140 144 145 145 145 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 60 59 60 56 55 58 58 64 65 65 62 63 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 69 74 89 122 117 104 97 73 85 77 68 60 53 40 38 200 MB DIV 15 15 29 29 29 50 40 9 20 17 0 12 24 20 15 5 16 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 4 1 5 4 2 1 0 1 0 -1 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 791 844 899 940 992 1115 1252 1427 1582 1749 1891 2006 2068 2077 2028 1929 1786 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.3 15.8 15.2 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.1 119.8 121.5 123.3 124.9 126.6 128.0 128.9 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 6 4 2 2 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 16 20 18 14 19 13 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 16. 17. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.9 115.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.29 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 19.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.7% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 9.5% 8.1% 0.5% 0.1% 7.1% 6.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##