* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912020 05/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 42 45 49 51 53 52 54 55 55 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 42 39 33 29 32 31 33 34 34 35 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 29 28 27 30 33 36 39 41 44 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 9 8 5 5 7 16 17 13 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 -2 -5 -7 -4 -1 -1 0 2 0 -5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 145 162 152 158 147 163 172 185 157 42 16 62 58 73 49 48 56 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.2 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 170 170 165 160 161 165 165 161 159 161 162 161 158 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 5 4 7 5 7 5 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 85 86 86 86 86 84 82 81 81 81 80 80 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 12 10 11 10 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 82 83 83 82 95 83 85 67 83 69 79 93 93 82 64 200 MB DIV 129 130 145 156 190 155 159 148 101 62 83 87 100 55 65 41 45 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 -7 0 LAND (KM) 291 253 216 183 130 44 -6 -30 -19 5 34 49 97 142 162 193 217 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 14.4 15.4 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.3 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.2 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.5 94.0 94.6 95.3 96.0 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 24 25 25 23 19 20 23 23 21 25 32 31 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 91.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912020 INVEST 05/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 150.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.95 9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -7.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 43.8% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 31.9% 45.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 23.1% 12.5% 7.7% 4.7% 40.8% 79.9% 42.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 11.8% Consensus: 0.6% 22.8% 14.5% 2.6% 1.7% 24.3% 42.1% 18.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912020 INVEST 05/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##