* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 07/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 62 67 71 69 71 69 67 64 60 54 48 42 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 62 67 71 69 71 69 67 64 60 54 48 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 54 57 61 62 62 60 59 56 52 45 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 11 12 13 15 13 19 18 18 9 15 12 12 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 0 -1 -4 -5 -6 -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 332 1 40 58 68 67 63 49 42 46 38 43 17 30 359 327 334 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 27.7 26.9 27.5 27.2 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 153 152 141 133 139 135 126 126 129 125 119 113 111 110 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 79 80 81 81 78 77 73 70 68 67 65 68 65 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 16 15 17 16 19 20 20 21 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 3 14 33 31 47 66 65 72 68 45 10 -11 -19 -13 -14 200 MB DIV 99 111 110 68 76 80 87 95 97 66 81 75 60 57 36 24 17 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -9 -9 -6 -4 -7 -10 -9 -10 -7 -5 -3 -2 -4 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 1195 1270 1289 1311 1344 1416 1520 1607 1662 1740 1835 1897 1927 1966 2020 2148 1973 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 15 14 6 2 6 9 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 6. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 31. 29. 31. 29. 27. 24. 20. 14. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.9 113.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.54 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.9% 21.6% 20.7% 12.0% 18.9% 16.1% 12.4% Logistic: 7.7% 27.7% 14.6% 7.6% 1.6% 9.0% 17.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 10.1% 4.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 10.0% 19.2% 12.9% 9.7% 4.6% 9.4% 11.1% 6.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% 15.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##