* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 54 62 71 80 96 104 107 108 100 90 79 66 59 51 43 35 V (KT) LAND 45 54 62 71 80 96 104 107 108 100 90 79 66 59 51 43 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 68 76 93 109 119 113 98 83 65 51 41 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 2 3 2 9 2 3 6 12 15 18 13 12 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 5 3 -2 -6 -3 -3 0 2 0 4 3 9 0 8 SHEAR DIR 54 10 345 43 23 119 141 62 103 107 147 159 193 213 206 199 207 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.6 28.9 26.8 25.9 24.9 23.9 22.7 22.3 21.8 21.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 170 171 170 168 163 161 154 132 122 112 102 89 84 79 78 74 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 6 6 8 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 81 79 80 77 76 69 61 56 54 49 49 46 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 23 25 27 31 30 29 27 24 24 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 10 20 29 41 61 61 85 76 77 82 58 67 40 29 0 200 MB DIV 106 84 71 96 135 122 130 84 76 30 10 5 -5 13 1 5 5 700-850 TADV -1 -11 -14 -12 -11 -6 0 -1 -4 -11 -1 0 6 4 7 11 16 LAND (KM) 466 462 460 451 458 468 518 433 364 367 426 502 561 690 821 931 948 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.8 16.3 17.8 19.2 20.9 22.0 22.7 23.8 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 101.1 102.7 104.1 105.6 108.0 109.8 111.3 112.8 114.2 115.8 117.6 119.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 11 11 10 8 9 11 11 8 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 48 44 39 32 27 26 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 18. 16. 13. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 13. 4. -2. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 26. 35. 51. 59. 62. 63. 55. 45. 34. 21. 14. 6. -2. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.1 99.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 18.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 16.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 19.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.68 15.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 12.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -15.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 6.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 7.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.4% 97.7% 90.1% 80.7% 65.3% 100.0% 100.0% 58.4% Logistic: 54.1% 87.9% 81.5% 75.3% 23.3% 91.0% 76.5% 45.9% Bayesian: 45.0% 79.2% 81.4% 70.1% 9.8% 60.4% 45.8% 22.0% Consensus: 50.2% 88.3% 84.3% 75.4% 32.8% 83.8% 74.1% 42.1% DTOPS: 24.0% 60.0% 50.0% 24.0% 15.0% 41.0% 37.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##