* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912021 08/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 45 45 43 39 36 33 29 25 21 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 45 45 43 39 36 33 29 25 21 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 18 15 10 9 6 7 18 14 18 21 19 10 4 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 3 3 1 4 5 1 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 44 43 40 35 31 45 352 197 194 198 202 220 225 237 266 305 313 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.6 25.7 24.1 23.7 23.1 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 149 142 142 123 106 101 95 101 103 101 95 94 96 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 76 76 72 70 65 62 63 63 61 61 62 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 10 24 22 36 28 23 38 77 90 93 82 65 35 20 6 200 MB DIV 84 60 26 31 32 76 75 16 37 48 73 61 68 38 4 0 21 700-850 TADV -3 -12 -7 -3 -3 -10 -17 3 11 0 0 -8 -7 -6 -1 1 7 LAND (KM) 612 666 724 699 707 791 935 1168 1426 1730 2020 1990 1742 1559 1454 1386 1317 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.6 20.8 20.4 19.9 19.3 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 110.0 111.3 112.6 113.9 116.6 119.7 123.4 126.8 130.0 132.9 135.8 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 17 17 15 15 13 13 10 7 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 18 CX,CY: -14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 21. 19. 17. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 20. 18. 14. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 08/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 29.3% 9.2% 5.9% 1.5% 8.5% 1.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 16.2% 7.7% 2.0% 0.5% 7.6% 5.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 08/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##