* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 48 41 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 56 48 41 35 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 56 48 42 37 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 6 11 15 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 4 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 237 245 200 185 211 207 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.1 21.9 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 101 96 90 88 81 80 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 48 45 37 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -16 -17 -11 -4 19 -2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 0 6 4 22 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 8 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 546 582 607 617 637 667 703 713 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.7 26.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.1 119.0 119.7 120.3 121.3 122.1 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -27. -30. -34. -37. -41. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -24. -30. -41. -48. -57. -61. -65. -70. -74. -78. -83. -86. -89. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.8 117.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##