* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 69 62 56 42 32 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 69 62 56 42 32 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 68 60 53 40 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 7 7 11 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 3 6 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 214 236 246 208 207 199 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.4 22.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 103 97 91 84 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 56 52 48 41 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -10 -13 -11 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 0 -6 1 4 16 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 7 12 8 3 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 475 534 588 602 617 638 665 715 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.1 25.0 26.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 117.0 118.0 118.8 119.6 120.6 121.4 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -40. -43. -47. -50. -53. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -24. -38. -48. -58. -63. -67. -70. -74. -77. -80. -82. -86. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.2 116.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##