* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 56 53 52 53 53 52 50 48 46 44 41 38 33 32 V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 56 53 52 53 53 52 50 48 46 44 41 38 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 62 59 56 51 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 23 22 26 21 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 3 3 0 -1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 205 198 200 199 207 223 211 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 141 140 143 144 149 147 149 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 37 39 40 41 43 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -36 -29 -40 -53 -66 -67 -71 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 30 36 19 18 -5 2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 8 -1 3 4 1 3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 345 512 703 896 1273 1670 2089 2436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.6 163.3 164.9 166.8 168.7 172.4 176.3 180.4 183.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 18 17 18 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 16 12 16 26 18 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -17. -18. -17. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.0 161.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 654.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##