* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 82 77 69 62 57 53 51 48 49 46 43 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 82 77 69 62 57 53 51 48 49 47 43 38 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 78 72 63 57 53 50 48 47 46 45 42 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 9 8 13 18 18 20 18 17 19 25 32 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 3 4 3 3 6 7 8 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 152 208 226 220 217 222 217 222 231 219 205 205 201 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.8 28.2 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 120 119 119 122 128 135 138 140 139 144 148 144 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 54 49 44 40 39 38 41 43 47 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 21 20 18 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 6 4 2 -2 -1 3 -8 -2 -23 -35 -31 -34 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 26 28 10 -13 9 0 28 12 6 6 22 24 19 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 4 7 3 9 1 3 6 3 5 0 0 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1315 1121 930 768 609 298 95 19 22 342 670 1002 1348 1665 1961 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.4 22.6 23.1 24.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 144.4 146.1 147.5 149.0 152.0 154.9 157.5 160.4 163.5 166.7 169.9 173.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 11 15 14 14 17 10 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -34. -37. -39. -39. -39. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -23. -31. -38. -43. -47. -49. -52. -51. -54. -57. -62. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.7 142.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 657.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##