* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 114 112 108 98 85 74 60 55 49 44 42 41 37 36 36 V (KT) LAND 105 112 114 112 108 98 85 74 60 55 48 43 41 40 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 110 104 97 83 73 66 59 47 48 45 43 41 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 1 7 7 16 18 26 22 26 25 29 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 3 3 6 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 329 281 200 121 66 128 265 236 248 244 256 259 258 249 269 265 279 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.1 26.3 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 141 127 129 121 120 123 128 133 142 142 146 145 146 151 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 63 64 62 55 52 46 41 40 39 43 44 46 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 23 21 21 20 19 15 15 14 13 12 12 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 18 20 15 10 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 -4 -22 -28 -24 -14 200 MB DIV 33 17 31 34 16 18 24 11 6 -7 -7 0 -7 25 0 12 2 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 1 0 1 5 7 1 7 6 0 0 0 -5 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 2210 2022 1835 1654 1473 1132 793 476 167 12 121 240 592 946 1274 1603 1942 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 17.0 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.8 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.7 138.3 139.9 141.4 144.4 147.4 150.3 153.2 156.0 159.0 162.3 165.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 15 16 17 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 8 0 1 0 0 0 1 7 29 16 20 15 16 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -34. -39. -42. -44. -45. -45. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 7. 3. -7. -20. -31. -45. -50. -56. -61. -63. -64. -68. -69. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.3 135.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 4.3% 5.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.1% 1.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##