* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062020 07/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 24 24 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 24 24 24 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 5 6 8 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 356 334 322 312 276 265 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.9 27.9 27.1 27.0 26.1 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 155 145 137 137 127 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 69 67 69 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -14 -18 -22 -14 -4 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -2 8 37 42 24 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 6 4 5 14 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 792 880 983 1087 1206 1567 1855 2068 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.4 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.8 117.2 118.9 120.6 124.4 127.5 130.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 9 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 114.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##