* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 30 27 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 0 6 11 12 11 12 14 14 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 14 222 243 264 259 260 262 283 291 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.4 22.6 23.4 23.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 91 88 89 89 87 89 97 96 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 53 51 50 45 42 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 14 12 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 67 57 55 39 26 14 15 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -14 -19 -17 -20 -12 -20 0 -18 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 10 16 4 3 15 1 9 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1118 1191 1271 1349 1432 1644 1809 1951 1803 1559 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.2 127.3 129.9 132.3 134.9 137.8 140.3 142.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -21. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -27. -35. -42. -47. -52. -54. -55. -56. -56. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 122.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##