* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 67 73 76 77 70 66 60 52 45 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 67 73 76 77 70 66 60 52 45 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 63 67 69 66 58 50 44 38 32 28 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 7 5 8 14 14 12 1 2 1 4 8 11 13 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -5 2 -3 0 -1 -3 2 0 6 4 SHEAR DIR 2 354 5 16 58 45 51 50 66 105 220 237 269 287 292 291 279 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.3 25.5 24.1 23.1 22.6 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.8 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 149 147 143 143 138 119 105 95 90 85 86 85 92 100 103 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 81 79 80 79 76 71 65 59 56 53 51 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 23 24 26 27 25 24 23 21 19 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 10 12 25 29 33 46 59 109 111 124 114 112 92 76 73 200 MB DIV 113 123 135 125 87 83 42 53 20 45 12 -15 -12 -6 0 -15 -15 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 -5 -2 -2 1 0 2 0 -2 -1 0 7 LAND (KM) 566 566 564 589 630 643 644 722 819 993 1188 1417 1644 1868 1970 1682 1457 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.4 108.3 109.3 110.2 111.9 113.9 116.2 118.7 121.5 124.5 127.4 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 14 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 14 12 10 7 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 26. 27. 20. 16. 10. 2. -5. -14. -20. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 106.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.77 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 39.1% 32.6% 22.6% 16.7% 25.2% 21.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 37.5% 25.3% 15.9% 5.1% 16.7% 10.8% 2.0% Bayesian: 8.8% 14.0% 14.0% 3.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 30.2% 24.0% 14.0% 7.4% 14.7% 11.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 14.0% 41.0% 31.0% 23.0% 15.0% 23.0% 11.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##