* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 54 64 72 79 86 88 83 79 74 66 57 50 40 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 54 64 72 79 86 88 83 79 74 66 57 50 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 52 60 68 74 78 75 69 61 53 45 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 14 14 6 2 1 4 12 14 10 5 6 8 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 0 0 3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 33 39 42 38 348 312 138 84 44 58 51 347 324 268 268 297 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.1 25.4 24.7 23.4 23.1 22.5 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 163 162 160 147 150 146 140 135 118 112 97 93 87 89 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 78 78 78 79 80 81 81 79 77 70 63 59 55 48 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 17 18 19 22 24 27 26 26 26 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 1 -8 -10 1 9 38 36 44 71 109 133 125 111 114 117 200 MB DIV 88 98 96 110 108 114 123 102 97 59 40 46 22 -3 -2 -20 -48 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -6 -5 -5 -1 -4 0 -2 -7 -4 -1 0 0 1 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 643 643 648 632 640 661 699 781 757 788 870 1009 1172 1285 1394 1626 1877 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.9 104.1 105.2 106.3 108.1 109.8 111.5 113.0 114.9 117.3 120.1 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 11 13 14 12 9 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 53 37 32 15 13 10 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 16. 15. 14. 11. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 29. 37. 44. 51. 53. 48. 44. 39. 31. 22. 15. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 101.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.69 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 36.0% 29.0% 20.1% 15.9% 25.7% 43.9% 45.9% Logistic: 5.0% 30.8% 16.0% 10.7% 1.5% 37.3% 54.3% 35.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 14.2% 9.3% 3.1% 0.7% 6.7% 15.0% 28.6% Consensus: 7.6% 27.0% 18.1% 11.3% 6.0% 23.2% 37.7% 36.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 13.0% 23.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##