* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BORIS EP032020 06/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 24 22 19 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 24 22 19 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 14 14 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 7 3 0 -4 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 180 169 161 162 192 247 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 127 126 128 133 132 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 42 40 40 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -14 -30 -42 -48 -50 -59 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 19 2 -25 -18 -4 19 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1795 1739 1683 1618 1554 1383 1211 1096 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.1 140.6 141.3 141.9 143.8 146.0 148.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 139.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 BORIS 06/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 BORIS 06/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##