* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP032020 06/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 38 33 27 22 18 16 16 17 19 20 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 38 33 27 22 18 16 16 17 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 36 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 4 5 8 11 14 16 17 15 13 11 9 11 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 3 6 6 4 -2 0 -3 6 4 3 6 SHEAR DIR 5 355 18 66 125 159 185 183 190 194 225 254 299 315 300 313 310 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 139 136 134 131 124 118 118 117 115 117 121 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 64 63 63 61 57 51 43 38 34 34 34 35 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 11 9 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 30 35 38 37 6 -21 -33 -34 -26 -14 2 11 28 27 33 200 MB DIV 30 -1 -14 -1 -1 12 1 -13 -16 -6 -17 -20 -19 -3 5 16 22 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 2 0 4 1 0 3 5 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 2604 2530 2456 2388 2329 2196 2074 1952 1805 1643 1487 1329 1183 1021 883 755 662 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 15.8 15.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 134.0 134.6 135.1 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.6 139.9 141.3 142.9 144.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 7 8 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 15 17 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 132.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.9% 19.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 31.0% 18.5% 7.5% 4.8% 3.5% 0.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 18.1% 12.6% 6.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032020 INVEST 06/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##