* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 10/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 17 20 18 24 26 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 22 25 29 38 45 49 47 42 26 28 32 41 55 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -3 -2 0 -8 -10 -8 5 1 1 -3 -2 4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 217 214 212 208 215 219 227 221 227 216 210 210 226 229 230 233 238 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.7 25.6 23.7 26.7 29.6 29.3 24.0 20.1 20.2 13.5 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 147 142 131 119 100 132 162 159 104 64 66 64 65 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.5 -56.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.6 -57.4 -56.1 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 6 7 5 5 2 3 0 2 1 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 47 47 44 45 45 47 50 51 48 46 49 53 55 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 6 18 20 6 -11 -31 -33 -34 -10 -1 47 38 50 31 -6 200 MB DIV -2 3 16 29 29 43 53 81 76 45 28 40 46 64 49 40 35 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 4 4 10 1 12 -2 -2 0 1 0 -11 10 48 LAND (KM) 425 449 459 467 402 294 239 90 33 1 -45 -337 -620 -936 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.6 22.2 24.2 26.4 29.0 31.7 34.4 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.4 111.4 112.3 112.9 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.1 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 13 13 14 13 13 17 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 13 12 9 2 0 0 4 57 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 28. 25. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -9. -21. -33. -44. -46. -48. -50. -57. -72. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. -5. -13. -21. -23. -25. -32. -45. -66. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 108.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.68 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 10/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##