* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 19 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 19 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 4 4 4 8 12 18 19 22 26 28 23 22 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 6 3 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 43 28 47 94 107 160 195 201 219 224 219 223 231 237 243 259 249 SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.9 24.2 23.6 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.4 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 117 112 105 99 88 90 90 90 84 81 83 86 91 101 111 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 60 59 55 47 39 33 28 25 25 21 20 19 18 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -23 -29 -46 -55 -47 -54 -43 -55 -55 -57 -84 -86 -65 -49 -37 -26 200 MB DIV 65 43 25 14 9 -2 -10 -13 -7 -5 -14 -19 -15 -17 -9 -6 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 7 7 6 12 12 15 9 1 -7 -23 -34 -33 -31 -25 LAND (KM) 1796 1791 1801 1819 1858 1940 1990 1907 1787 1714 1651 1608 1562 1475 1315 1066 746 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.6 25.9 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.8 129.6 130.4 131.3 133.1 135.1 136.8 138.2 139.2 140.1 140.7 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 2 3 5 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 6. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -24. -29. -33. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 128.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##