* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 38 39 40 40 36 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 38 39 40 40 36 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 29 26 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 1 2 4 5 8 13 16 23 27 31 29 31 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 4 4 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 306 299 298 215 225 83 152 191 208 229 227 224 225 227 232 229 234 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.0 24.3 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 132 128 124 106 95 95 96 96 97 91 89 86 87 89 90 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 64 62 63 67 65 58 52 43 35 31 27 26 25 23 21 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -28 -24 -17 -19 -48 -41 -21 -22 -39 -66 -84 -88 -66 -47 -37 200 MB DIV 74 90 86 87 74 39 10 2 0 -5 1 -4 -7 -7 -19 -9 -23 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -6 -5 -2 4 4 6 15 13 16 11 2 -14 -29 -37 -32 LAND (KM) 1793 1856 1878 1873 1868 1890 1974 2040 1823 1591 1450 1391 1406 1424 1426 1404 1344 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 19.2 20.6 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.8 25.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.6 127.7 128.6 129.4 131.0 132.8 135.0 137.5 140.0 141.9 143.1 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 12 13 12 9 7 3 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 13. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -5. -13. -21. -31. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 125.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.6% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 18.3% 14.8% 5.7% 1.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 16.0% 13.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##