* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 20 22 29 31 33 30 27 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 20 22 29 31 33 30 27 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 6 4 5 6 13 18 28 27 28 18 18 24 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 7 7 4 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 6 33 41 29 21 346 234 244 237 252 273 300 281 248 242 246 232 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.1 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.0 25.0 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 154 152 148 145 142 135 123 114 114 113 108 109 114 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 49 49 52 53 52 51 51 47 43 38 36 37 36 33 27 24 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -16 -20 -13 -24 -54 -26 -29 -6 -18 -27 -26 -22 -62 -63 -35 -25 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -16 -13 8 -1 24 9 -4 -48 -60 -52 -57 -23 -14 -12 -9 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 4 0 -3 5 0 3 4 2 2 3 1 -6 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 576 573 589 602 632 746 794 814 846 821 808 832 856 864 864 900 931 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.3 107.0 107.9 108.8 110.8 112.9 114.9 116.4 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 1 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 20 17 11 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 9. 11. 13. 10. 7. 2. -0. -2. -3. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 106.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##