* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 39 42 41 38 33 29 26 23 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 39 42 41 38 33 29 26 23 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 26 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 5 10 16 28 31 32 27 26 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 2 -2 0 -1 1 1 0 3 5 9 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 11 17 24 43 51 54 68 241 250 235 241 248 277 278 267 246 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.3 25.0 24.3 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 151 152 147 146 144 141 134 130 120 113 110 104 101 102 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 50 53 53 52 54 51 49 44 38 36 34 33 26 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 5 -3 -19 -8 -11 -43 -14 -30 -21 -22 -19 -34 -30 -35 -28 -5 200 MB DIV 7 9 23 19 -12 22 0 22 5 -9 -35 -50 -47 -60 -19 -13 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 3 0 3 3 3 6 5 2 -14 -9 LAND (KM) 679 685 708 730 742 784 861 850 862 882 864 818 792 752 679 524 370 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.1 107.6 108.3 109.0 110.4 111.9 113.5 115.1 116.3 117.2 117.7 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 21 27 13 10 11 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 31. 31. 31. 30. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 16. 13. 8. 4. 1. -2. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 107.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.25 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.7% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##