* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 49 51 53 55 56 57 59 60 59 57 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 38 31 28 27 32 33 34 36 37 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 36 30 28 27 29 27 26 25 25 24 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 17 19 24 31 33 35 29 25 27 27 31 25 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 8 9 4 3 4 4 7 3 5 6 2 8 4 3 SHEAR DIR 63 61 67 65 67 74 80 80 78 76 74 71 55 54 46 47 40 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 30.2 29.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 160 158 156 152 152 160 163 162 158 160 165 158 148 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 8 12 700-500 MB RH 78 82 86 85 81 83 80 82 79 80 74 77 81 84 80 78 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 25 27 18 8 17 12 -6 -15 11 4 24 36 64 82 87 64 200 MB DIV 95 87 83 83 95 103 81 93 77 73 66 114 99 93 85 60 21 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -10 -8 -11 -4 0 4 6 7 6 0 -3 -6 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 110 92 46 16 -11 -66 -73 -11 74 131 176 161 86 -35 -164 -242 -323 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.7 15.4 15.0 15.1 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.7 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.4 97.6 98.2 99.0 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 5 5 2 2 4 4 3 1 2 5 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 26 26 22 21 27 30 30 29 29 30 22 13 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 24. 22. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 95.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.06 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 24.4% 20.4% 14.1% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 16.3% 4.9% 3.0% 0.4% 6.6% 6.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 4.1% 15.5% 8.9% 5.8% 3.7% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##