* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 45 49 48 47 47 50 51 51 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 30 28 27 27 29 26 29 32 33 33 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 26 28 25 27 25 24 23 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 13 13 13 24 29 34 35 31 24 17 21 27 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 4 5 4 4 2 6 10 8 8 5 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 56 56 61 70 65 67 84 87 81 63 48 40 63 82 91 83 84 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 159 156 156 157 159 161 157 154 155 155 157 157 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.9 -51.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 7 4 9 6 9 6 10 7 10 7 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 75 78 81 81 85 85 80 79 80 80 80 78 78 82 83 85 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 26 21 18 -1 -16 2 1 17 21 22 27 29 42 67 80 200 MB DIV 102 113 105 108 107 91 135 89 72 60 122 79 119 97 104 94 83 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -6 -3 -1 -1 1 -3 -2 0 2 7 6 0 -3 LAND (KM) 175 144 105 67 40 -13 -40 -34 -18 11 -4 2 33 44 69 47 -11 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 95.7 95.9 96.2 96.6 97.3 98.0 98.6 99.2 100.1 100.9 101.6 102.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 25 25 25 23 23 24 28 27 21 23 24 26 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 44. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -13. -18. -20. -19. -19. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 23. 22. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 95.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.72 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.8% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 21.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 9.3% 16.7% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 11.3% 8.4% 0.4% 0.1% 10.1% 12.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##