* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 35 33 30 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 35 33 30 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 19 21 21 16 14 13 16 20 25 25 29 33 30 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 0 0 0 5 -1 -1 0 2 3 3 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 54 43 32 25 17 9 353 298 288 285 285 285 271 264 268 278 288 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.6 25.8 24.3 24.3 23.8 24.2 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 149 148 142 124 108 108 103 107 96 101 103 108 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 72 69 69 65 64 59 59 56 53 52 50 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 15 2 11 -7 -9 -20 -25 -50 -61 -57 -56 -40 -31 -27 -35 -17 200 MB DIV 41 28 35 37 16 8 -3 10 4 -2 -2 -6 -24 -1 -21 -34 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -1 -1 6 2 15 8 15 16 10 9 10 10 10 5 LAND (KM) 242 265 268 329 398 606 698 889 1126 1384 1649 1925 2115 1799 1516 1255 1004 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 102.8 104.4 106.0 107.6 110.8 114.2 117.6 121.1 124.6 128.1 131.4 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 17 16 16 15 14 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 16 11 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 101.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##