* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 34 38 41 41 39 36 34 31 27 24 20 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 34 38 41 41 39 36 34 31 27 24 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 29 29 28 26 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 20 20 21 22 15 12 17 19 21 24 29 31 33 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 2 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0 2 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 68 59 48 46 39 28 10 340 291 286 278 278 274 278 280 282 283 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.0 28.3 28.2 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.4 24.3 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 155 152 147 150 149 126 120 115 110 108 103 107 110 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 77 75 73 72 71 68 64 62 58 56 53 51 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 12 14 14 -2 -6 -8 -24 -36 -26 -33 -26 -19 -11 -3 -18 200 MB DIV 62 63 52 56 58 5 7 -4 18 27 30 22 -3 -18 1 -14 -24 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 2 -3 3 1 4 8 8 10 7 8 5 6 7 9 LAND (KM) 281 311 353 379 435 593 751 915 1127 1404 1704 1984 2155 1801 1481 1206 932 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.8 101.4 102.9 104.5 106.0 109.3 112.6 116.0 119.5 123.2 127.1 130.8 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 18 15 9 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 99.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##