* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 10/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 38 39 42 49 54 54 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 38 39 42 49 54 38 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 34 35 34 35 38 41 32 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 16 16 10 13 14 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 4 5 4 0 -5 -4 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 68 62 90 88 61 73 74 81 88 124 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 158 163 166 161 159 156 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 5 6 5 7 6 8 6 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 84 85 84 86 80 77 72 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 10 7 5 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 71 69 68 80 61 78 65 69 43 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 125 125 125 126 101 142 104 72 46 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -5 -2 0 -5 -4 -1 1 0 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 201 209 197 185 207 146 60 49 11 -53 -132 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 14 15 10 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 11 13 21 26 21 20 18 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 12. 19. 24. 24. 26. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 90.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 27.9% 23.9% 18.0% 0.0% 22.2% 23.9% 44.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.7% 3.6% 2.1% 0.3% 14.3% 38.5% 25.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 13.0% Consensus: 4.3% 13.4% 9.7% 6.8% 0.1% 12.2% 20.9% 27.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 10/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##