* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 28 33 38 42 43 45 48 50 52 53 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 26 31 36 40 42 43 38 43 46 47 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 21 22 22 23 24 25 23 27 27 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 13 14 17 18 13 14 8 10 4 11 11 13 7 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -2 -5 -4 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 5 8 9 SHEAR DIR 97 111 113 114 120 137 156 145 161 163 182 142 144 146 109 114 54 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.7 28.8 27.5 27.0 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 157 156 156 156 154 152 154 160 150 138 133 117 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 9 8 10 9 10 8 9 7 7 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 79 76 71 64 61 58 59 54 50 42 40 37 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 51 48 46 44 67 61 61 36 22 -10 -9 -11 15 18 32 42 200 MB DIV 58 50 47 52 25 15 -2 31 24 4 -7 11 4 2 16 2 -25 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 9 13 16 10 6 3 LAND (KM) 113 94 74 34 5 3 38 109 201 173 61 -30 81 221 346 508 708 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.3 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 104.4 104.6 104.8 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.9 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 5 5 7 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 26 15 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 334 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 44. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.0 103.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 7.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.4% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##