* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 44 48 52 54 59 61 65 66 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 34 39 41 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 23 24 26 26 27 27 31 34 38 42 43 42 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 16 15 17 17 12 9 6 5 4 3 8 11 9 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 72 87 99 98 103 118 129 149 158 163 184 114 106 125 139 128 152 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.3 28.0 26.5 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 152 148 146 148 154 160 164 162 158 157 144 129 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 11 8 12 8 12 8 11 6 7 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 83 82 75 70 62 61 59 59 57 55 51 49 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 43 57 47 52 78 75 66 39 36 20 2 0 3 11 11 200 MB DIV 66 74 67 61 58 25 19 18 26 20 -9 0 -1 12 -12 -12 -24 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 5 12 14 13 8 LAND (KM) 120 99 44 -22 -77 -122 -132 -94 -5 15 45 105 111 157 371 611 841 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.1 22.6 22.8 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.2 102.0 102.3 102.5 102.6 103.0 103.6 104.4 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.4 108.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 6 8 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 21 18 14 12 14 17 23 26 23 19 19 16 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 370 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. 42. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 34. 36. 40. 41. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 11.7% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 7.4% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##