* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 09/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 31 33 37 42 46 50 52 55 58 60 63 65 66 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 20 16 14 17 14 7 7 7 12 12 8 9 9 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 1 -2 -4 -2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 73 71 72 82 88 94 114 131 188 220 244 262 306 3 53 69 70 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.5 29.5 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 151 147 143 146 145 147 146 144 142 142 148 159 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 7 8 6 11 8 13 8 13 9 13 9 11 5 6 700-500 MB RH 86 85 82 81 80 77 69 65 62 59 61 61 57 59 57 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 68 54 30 36 37 36 51 59 49 32 31 22 36 33 31 31 200 MB DIV 113 121 101 75 50 38 36 22 0 3 12 6 -12 4 -1 10 17 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 6 6 1 LAND (KM) 75 61 8 -70 -132 -241 -306 -336 -346 -263 -229 -226 -201 -89 68 177 168 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.0 19.3 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.7 99.1 99.4 99.6 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.9 102.9 103.6 104.0 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 18 14 5 9 9 12 13 13 11 10 10 12 18 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 384 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 97.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 18.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.4% 12.8% 20.7% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.4% 12.9% 6.4% 1.0% 0.5% 8.7% 11.1% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 09/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##