* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972021 07/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 30 34 37 33 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 30 34 37 33 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 19 23 22 26 31 20 28 25 26 22 26 32 32 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 4 6 5 -1 11 -3 0 3 9 5 2 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 333 340 355 6 6 342 329 305 265 269 269 240 245 263 274 272 287 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.9 29.8 28.0 24.2 21.9 20.5 19.9 20.2 20.9 20.9 21.3 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 155 157 157 166 165 148 108 84 69 62 64 71 71 75 83 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 79 79 79 75 73 70 62 56 51 46 38 36 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 5 12 13 21 8 30 33 20 26 26 6 9 28 47 39 200 MB DIV 136 168 169 145 141 115 82 50 58 19 -2 1 -5 -27 -25 -23 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -8 -5 7 8 -32 -8 -22 0 1 19 9 23 8 7 LAND (KM) 638 615 565 513 450 281 153 274 207 399 627 892 1083 1241 1467 1699 1926 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 11.1 12.1 13.2 15.7 18.3 20.7 22.7 24.2 25.2 26.1 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.1 99.4 100.7 101.8 103.9 105.9 108.8 112.4 116.5 120.6 123.8 126.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 15 16 17 19 20 20 17 13 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 15 16 16 20 21 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 30. 31. 30. 26. 23. 20. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -17. -21. -23. -24. -26. -29. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 13. 8. 4. -3. -12. -22. -34. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.2% 5.7% 8.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.9% 2.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##