* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 46 50 54 55 56 56 59 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 46 50 54 55 56 56 59 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 37 35 35 35 36 37 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 13 13 6 5 9 5 0 3 2 2 2 6 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 -1 -3 -4 1 -2 -4 -1 3 -2 -3 -4 2 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 156 133 101 85 93 75 356 308 292 181 237 311 109 324 100 93 117 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 143 145 147 149 145 143 141 143 144 145 146 145 144 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 71 72 72 68 63 62 58 56 56 59 63 68 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -26 -32 -45 -57 -49 -45 -24 -17 -16 -2 -2 9 13 17 20 200 MB DIV 2 2 -5 6 24 32 20 46 49 30 15 -16 -6 6 29 -3 7 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 843 840 841 838 830 813 791 770 753 704 662 637 626 662 670 665 645 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.8 103.3 103.9 104.4 105.6 106.6 107.1 107.3 107.1 106.7 106.6 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 2 2 3 2 1 0 2 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 13 18 22 22 20 18 17 17 17 18 17 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 102.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.20 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 21.7% 18.9% 13.0% 0.0% 18.0% 18.8% 12.1% Logistic: 6.8% 27.3% 9.2% 5.2% 1.6% 5.7% 10.1% 38.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 16.7% 9.4% 6.1% 0.6% 8.0% 9.7% 16.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##