* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 35 32 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 35 32 30 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 5 6 8 9 11 16 19 21 23 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -6 -8 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 326 323 306 286 282 273 264 243 260 249 250 238 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.7 24.8 24.4 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 133 126 125 125 119 108 103 103 109 113 119 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 55 47 40 38 36 36 35 32 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -20 -14 -20 -39 -37 -54 -59 -42 -37 -45 -52 200 MB DIV 49 33 32 37 31 22 10 1 5 -8 -20 -19 -19 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 1 3 2 3 5 3 4 7 4 LAND (KM) 1881 1889 1885 1891 1900 1920 1902 1853 1859 1907 2017 1839 1639 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.9 21.3 22.3 22.7 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.1 129.6 130.1 130.6 131.8 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.5 135.6 137.3 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 4 3 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 6 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 128.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.0% 12.3% 11.9% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.5% 4.7% 4.1% 0.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##