* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 34 36 37 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 34 36 37 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 26 25 24 23 21 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 8 7 9 10 12 12 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 5 3 0 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 64 56 46 45 63 8 333 346 346 5 52 80 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.6 25.8 25.3 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 141 140 139 132 128 119 114 115 109 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 59 57 57 55 57 57 51 46 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 40 37 31 17 1 15 -5 -1 -20 -27 -48 200 MB DIV 15 8 -2 11 16 22 -4 8 5 5 2 24 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1723 1763 1780 1782 1768 1757 1768 1744 1711 1685 1676 1679 1736 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.3 125.6 125.8 125.8 126.0 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.2 128.9 129.5 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 2 5 5 6 6 6 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 20 20 19 16 8 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 10. 9. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 5.2% 3.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.2% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##