* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 36 41 49 57 66 72 82 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 36 41 49 57 66 72 82 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 39 45 54 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 20 25 23 22 20 14 10 7 8 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 2 3 6 3 4 0 -2 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 40 61 68 63 43 32 18 8 337 312 320 325 SST (C) 28.2 28.9 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.7 30.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 152 160 163 164 165 166 168 168 167 172 172 162 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 5 8 5 8 6 11 8 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 73 71 74 76 75 76 78 78 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 9 10 13 15 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 55 49 46 49 50 49 43 36 14 29 36 200 MB DIV 47 48 62 64 40 44 63 70 88 57 86 57 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 280 259 238 224 214 230 297 267 243 195 139 56 -49 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.7 93.1 93.9 94.8 96.1 97.5 99.0 100.7 102.4 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 22 35 40 40 39 39 38 45 45 39 34 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 24. 32. 41. 47. 57. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 91.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING