* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 08/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 39 45 51 58 64 74 79 85 94 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 39 45 51 58 64 74 79 85 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 39 42 45 48 54 62 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 11 12 15 22 24 21 16 12 11 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 2 6 6 4 3 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 16 22 15 35 54 67 53 42 35 16 8 316 12 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 148 156 161 164 163 163 169 170 172 171 172 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 7 5 8 5 8 4 8 6 12 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 72 72 72 74 76 75 76 78 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 16 17 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 27 43 51 40 42 46 43 44 33 13 12 200 MB DIV 64 79 56 35 56 47 34 74 87 118 99 89 72 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 -4 LAND (KM) 294 312 309 302 292 270 290 309 305 285 232 139 27 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.4 14.4 16.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.3 92.0 92.6 93.1 93.8 94.6 95.5 96.7 98.0 99.6 101.4 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 18 33 39 36 31 32 43 51 46 37 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 13. 15. 18. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 20. 26. 33. 39. 49. 54. 60. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 90.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 22.8% 10.9% 5.9% 2.8% 14.4% 23.6% 47.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 0.9% 15.8% 10.5% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% 14.1% 15.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 08/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##