* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 07/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 42 50 56 58 56 52 48 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 42 50 56 58 56 52 48 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 18 12 2 6 2 7 8 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 2 3 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 317 305 301 316 321 325 341 355 119 233 247 263 260 SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.1 27.7 26.4 25.2 25.2 24.9 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 152 155 156 147 142 128 114 112 110 103 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 68 64 59 52 50 44 39 35 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 9 16 23 19 26 19 21 17 17 21 27 200 MB DIV 110 97 88 96 91 74 90 57 36 9 -16 -6 0 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -12 -7 -8 -4 3 0 0 2 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 906 954 1012 1073 1094 1152 1223 1213 1258 1268 1246 1252 1327 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 13 11 11 7 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 28 41 55 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 33. 31. 27. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.38 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.1% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3% 3.1% 3.8% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 13.9% 9.5% 0.9% 0.1% 7.5% 8.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 07/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##