* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 33 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 33 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 9 15 18 19 22 25 33 33 32 27 26 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 2 2 0 5 -2 2 0 0 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 197 201 174 164 158 178 167 178 176 193 191 193 198 199 198 210 209 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.0 25.6 23.2 21.6 22.1 21.1 20.3 19.9 19.3 18.1 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 160 160 159 146 121 95 77 82 72 63 60 59 59 60 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 84 82 80 80 75 68 62 57 50 43 44 39 35 30 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 10 8 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 73 80 85 62 66 20 19 10 18 25 33 17 14 19 43 200 MB DIV 80 75 61 87 93 67 71 58 22 16 -3 -15 -24 -3 -2 7 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 -4 -7 -1 -19 -4 0 -4 -5 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 494 471 432 396 336 300 339 317 335 345 436 405 326 305 235 161 48 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.1 16.7 18.3 20.1 21.5 22.8 23.6 25.0 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 101.8 102.3 103.0 103.7 105.8 108.1 110.6 112.9 114.9 116.4 117.6 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 11 13 15 14 12 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 39 31 27 25 20 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 22. 18. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 8. 9. 4. -4. -13. -22. -30. -37. -43. -50. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 101.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.2% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.6% 21.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 21.4% 11.5% 6.2% 2.3% 17.9% 5.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 17.9% 13.0% 2.1% 0.8% 13.5% 9.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##